Members: Joris Veen, Frans Kraanen, Romee Hoogeveen, Jasper van Raaij, Olivier Klein Schiphorst
Student numbers: 4722868, 4727282, 4850025, 5177006, 4705106
To transport goods on the road vehicles need fuel to drive. The prices of fuel can fluctuate a lot so this can lead to high or low costs for tranport companies. This research will try to find out if the prices of fuel have an influence on the road transport. The following research question is proposed:
Research question:
sub-questions:
First the available data will be explored and secondly we will focus to answer our research questions. The data available is from 2007 till 2022. The data used is focussed on the Netherlands only.
To make this report more readable, all code used to prepare the data and analyse the data can be found in the notebook Project_group26_code.ipynb. This file is in the same github repository as this notebook. From the code file the necessary tables and figures are stored and shown in this report.
Some general remarks on fuel prices and transport which need to be taken into consideration when answering the research questions.
Fuel prices in the Netherlands dropped significantly in 2009 due to the financial crisis, and in the subsequent period, fuel taxes were increased, causing prices to rise. In the United States, around 2013, there was a significant increase in oil production, which stabilized prices in the Netherlands and then declined significantly until 2016 due to overproduction. Production restrictions imposed by oil-exporting countries led to substantial growth between 2017 and 2019, and a lack of demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 resulted in a decrease in fuel prices. The post-pandemic economic recovery led to a significant price increase again. In conclusion, none of these price changes were related to traffic taxation itself. In summary, it can be stated that fuel prices had no impact on incoming transport in the Netherlands.
First, a brief explanation regarding the concept of 'Incoming transport.' Incoming transport represents the total of goods brought into the territory of the Netherlands. Excluded is the transit transport without reloading within Dutch territory. The total incoming transport is equal to the sum of imports, incoming quasi-transit, incoming transit transport, and the balance of bonded warehouse storage.
Outgoing transport, the total of goods transported from the territory of the Netherlands to foreign countries. Excluded is transit transport without reloading within Dutch territory. The total outgoing transport is equal to the sum of exports and outgoing transit.
The data from the found datasets needs to be prepared to be able to analyse it. First the data will be prepared in such a way that both sets are in the same format, to be able to compare the transport data and fuel data.
The Tansport dataset consist of three different columns: Goederenstromen, Perioden and 1000kg. In the Goederenstromen column is specified if it is incoming, throughgoing or outgoing transport. The Perioden column gives the years from 2007-2021. The 1000kg column gives the amount of transport in tonnes. Only the Perioden column needs to be changed. After all the years is a * which needs to be deleted and the data type is set to datetime.
After preparing the transport data it has the following format
%store -r transport_data
transport_data.head()
| Goederenstromen | Perioden | 1000 kg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2007 | 103838966 |
| 1 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2008 | 103405705 |
| 2 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2009 | 89433416 |
| 3 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2010 | 89935769 |
| 4 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2011 | 91253760 |
The transport data then needs to be modified in a way that it can be used to answer the sub-questions. The dataset will be split up into incoming, throuhggoing and outggoing transport. Also a column will be added with the difference in transport in percantage compared to the first year 2007.
The results of modifying the data are shown in the following tables.
%store -r transport_data_incoming
transport_data_incoming.head()
| Goederenstromen | Perioden | 1000 kg | Transport Inkomend Diff (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2007 | 103838966 | 0.000000 |
| 1 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2008 | 103405705 | -0.417243 |
| 2 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2009 | 89433416 | -13.872971 |
| 3 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2010 | 89935769 | -13.389191 |
| 4 | Inkomend transport; totaal | 2011 | 91253760 | -12.119926 |
%store -r transport_data_inthrough
transport_data_inthrough.head()
| Goederenstromen | Perioden | 1000 kg | Transport inbound throughgoing Diff (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Inkomende doorvoer; totaal | 2007 | 22758861 | 0.000000 |
| 31 | Inkomende doorvoer; totaal | 2008 | 20157667 | -11.429368 |
| 32 | Inkomende doorvoer; totaal | 2009 | 18221232 | -19.937856 |
| 33 | Inkomende doorvoer; totaal | 2010 | 17758620 | -21.970524 |
| 34 | Inkomende doorvoer; totaal | 2011 | 19988265 | -12.173702 |
%store -r transport_data_outthrough
transport_data_outthrough.head()
| Goederenstromen | Perioden | 1000 kg | Transport outbound throughgoing Diff (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75 | Uitgaande doorvoer; totaal | 2007 | 36251658 | 0.000000 |
| 76 | Uitgaande doorvoer; totaal | 2008 | 31850577 | -12.140358 |
| 77 | Uitgaande doorvoer; totaal | 2009 | 28264094 | -22.033652 |
| 78 | Uitgaande doorvoer; totaal | 2010 | 21282497 | -41.292349 |
| 79 | Uitgaande doorvoer; totaal | 2011 | 25685992 | -29.145332 |
%store -r transport_data_outgoing
transport_data_outgoing.head()
| Goederenstromen | Perioden | 1000 kg | Transport outgoing Diff (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | Uitgaand transport; totaal | 2007 | 106598589 | 0.000000 |
| 46 | Uitgaand transport; totaal | 2008 | 104355675 | -2.104075 |
| 47 | Uitgaand transport; totaal | 2009 | 96034467 | -9.910189 |
| 48 | Uitgaand transport; totaal | 2010 | 94960247 | -10.917914 |
| 49 | Uitgaand transport; totaal | 2011 | 96605244 | -9.374744 |
The fuel data set consists of the following columns: Perioden, Benzine, Diesel, Lpg. The Perioden column needs to be changed from everyday to year. This is done by firstly setting the data type to datetime, then grouping the column by year and calculating the mean. The Benzine, Diesel and Lpg columns need to be changed from a string to a float. The fuel data then needs to be modified in a way that it can be used to answer the sub-questions. This is done by adding columns for the price difference in percentage compared to the first year.
The results of modifying the data are shown in the following table.
%store -r fuel_data
fuel_data.head()
| Perioden | Benzine | Diesel | Lpg | Benzine Price Diff (%) | Diesel Price Diff (%) | Lpg Price Diff (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2007 | 1.414156 | 1.059721 | 0.538271 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2 | 2008 | 1.476393 | 1.241314 | 0.598790 | 4.401019 | 17.135995 | 11.243102 |
| 3 | 2009 | 1.354011 | 1.012929 | 0.509482 | -4.253081 | -4.415483 | -5.348426 |
| 4 | 2010 | 1.503186 | 1.170838 | 0.644268 | 6.295637 | 10.485576 | 19.692165 |
| 5 | 2011 | 1.639871 | 1.347986 | 0.700367 | 15.961113 | 27.202054 | 30.114166 |
Firstly, the first graph will be analysed. How does incoming transport in the Netherlands compare to petrol prices between 2007 and 2021? Then, we will explore whether there might be a correlation between transport volumes and petrol prices.
What stands out, checking the incoming transport graph, is that between 2007 and 2009, there was a decrease of 13.9% and this decline remained very consistent over the following 12 years. There were three exceptions within this period; in 2017, 2019, and 2021, the numbers slightly improved in these years compared to 2007.
On the other hand, petrol prices were very volatile in comparison to 2007. Over the period, three peaks can be identified. Between 2010 and 2014, there was an increase of approximately 30% to 40% compared to 2007. This decreased significantly after 2014, and in 2016, petrol prices were approximately 5% higher than in 2007. The second peak occurred between 2017 and 2019, with a roughly 25% increase, which then decreased somewhat in 2020, only to rise to record highs in 2021 for different types of petrol, namely LPG, diesel, and petrol, with respective increases of +45.4%, +37.9%, and +28.3%. Apart from price growth, it is also noticeable that there was a substantial decrease in 2009. This is the only year when fuel prices were lower compared to 2007, by about -5%. But is there any correlation regarding the relative price increase of fuel and incoming transport in the Netherlands?
Based on graph 1, it can be concluded that no correlation can be identified. As mentioned in the introduction, numerous global events have impacted fuel prices, but incoming transport has not shown any significant influence on these prices. Therefore, it can be inferred that changes in fuel prices were not a result of fluctuations in incoming transport numbers.
%store -r Figure
Figure.show()
The second graph plots the quantity of incoming goods by road against fuel prices over the years. Two different axes are being used, to clearly show the progression. Transport of incoming goods in tons is plotted against the left y-axis and the fuel prices in euros against the right y-axis.
The expectation is that decreasing fuel prices result in a higher amount of incoming transport in the Netherlands. Simply because its transportation becomes less expensive.
The graph shows a significant drop of almost 14M ton in the incoming transport of goods in 2009. This is interesting, since in this year the fuel prices all decreased. According to the expectation, the amount of transport should actually increase. However, this decrease is not due to falling fuel prices, but to the credit crisis that occurred in 2009. This crisis had a lot of negative effects on the transport of goods, which explains this huge drop. .
Furthermore, from 2012 through 2020, an opposite behavior between transportation and fuel prices can be found. This means that there can be a correlation between the fuel prices and the incoming goods by road. A striking observation in these years is the huge drop in 2018. In previous years, fuel prices did go up, but comparatively not that much, that this was probably not the leading factor for this drop.
In 2021 there is an increase in the fuelprices as well as in the incoming transported goods. This is due to the Covid-19 pandemic, where people relied on packages being delivered at home. Therefore, rising fuel prices did not keep inbound transportation from rising as well.
It can be concluded that, although a relationship can be found between fuel prices and goods transport entering the Netherlands, fuel prices are probably not a leading factor of the changes in the quantity of transportation.
%store -r Figure2
Figure2.show()
To answer this question it is important to consider the difference between incoming and outgoing transit of goods by road in the Netherlands. Incoming transit goods are goods originating from another country that travel through the Netherlands with their final destination also in a foreign country. These are goods without being transloaded in the Netherlands. It’s important to notice that these goods are never in possession of a Dutch legal entity. Outgoing transit goods only differ from incoming transit goods with respect to the amount of transloading the goods in the Netherlands. Outgoing transit goods are transloaded at least once. When analyzing this question, it is important to differentiate between these different goods.
The two inbound throughgoing graphs show the differences in regards to the first year and the absolute changes. In both cases it can be very clearly seen that there is a correlation between the price and weight transported. Between 2011 and 2015 the fuel price increased, meaning that the weight transported lowered a lot. The exception that can be seen in these graphs is the increase in both fuel and transport, this can be explained by the Covid-19 pandemic. In this period everybody relied on packages being delivered because they could not leave their house, therefore the increase in fuel price did not have an effect on the weight of throughgoing products. In 2020, there was a significant increase in the transportation of goods by road. Let’s delve deeper into the statistics for this particular year.
In particular, incoming transit transport experienced a remarkable increase rising by approximately 88.4% compared to the first year (2007). Outbound transit also experienced an increase of 29.4% compared to 2007. The absolute value for outbound transit remained higher than inbound transit despite the extreme growth. Why has there been such a significant increase in only the inbound transit? This increase might be a result of products being transported at an even faster rate, without overloading the products in the Netherlands.
%store -r Figure3
Figure3.show()
%store -r Figure4
Figure4.show()
%store -r Figure5
Figure5.show()
%store -r Figure6
Figure6.show()
The trend of petrol prices relative to the year 2007 has been discussed in the introduction. However, in this graph, outgoing transport is presented, unlike the incoming transport discussed in the first sub question
Similary, it is clearly visible that there is a decrease in outgoing transport from 2007 to 2021. The maximum difference can be observed in 2015, with a decrease of -15.1%. The smallest difference occurs in 2019, with a variation of -0.6%. But even this graph shows little change over the years. Based on this graph, it can be concluded that petrol prices do not seem to have an influence on fuel prices.
%store -r Figure7
Figure7.show()
The graph plots the quantity of outgoing goods against fuel prices over the years 2016 through 2021. Transport of outgoing goods in tons is plotted against the left y-axis and the fuelprices in euros against the right y-axis. Again, no difference will be made in the prices of the different types of fuel, as they change roughly the same. Falling fuelprices are expected to result in increased outbound freight.
The graph shows a significant drop of a little over 8.3M ton in the outgoing transport of goods in 2009. This has to do with the credit crisis that took place at that time. This had a negative effect on freight transport.
From then on, a small correlation between fuelprices and the quantity of outgoing goods can be found. It shows opposite behavior for the succeeding years, except for the years 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2020. Opposite behavior means the change of outgoing goods behave like expected. Nevertheless, it can be seen that the outgoing goods change so much per year from 2012 compared to the changes in fuel prices, that it might have an impact on, but is probably not the leading factor of the changes in quantity of transportation.
%store -r Figure8
Figure8.show()
Based the analysis of the graphs, it can be concluded that while there is some correlation between fuel prices and the road transport of goods in the Netherlands, the influence of fuel prices on the quantity of transportation is not straightforward and is influenced by various other factors.
In summary, fuel prices do have an influence on the road transport of goods in the Netherlands, but this influence is complex and affected by other external factors. The relationship between fuel prices and the quantity of transportation is not a straightforward one, as it varies over time and depends on specific circumstances, such as economic crises and global events like the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, it can be concluded that while there is a correlation, fuel prices are likely not the sole or leading factor influencing changes in the quantity of road transport of goods in tons in the Netherlands.
Be specific. Some of the tasks can be coding (expect everyone to do this), background research, conceptualisation, visualisation, data analysis, data modelling
Joris: Written code for data preperation and reviewed code of data analysis. Constructed lay out of complete report with code in separate notebook. Wrote conclusion.
Frans: Constructed and written code of “percentage differences over time…” graphs for subquestions 1,2 and 3. Written Chapter 1.1 and 3.1. Contribution made for answering the research question.
Romée :Constructed and written code of “Fuel prices vs transport” graphs for subquestions 1, 2 and 3. Written Chapter 1.2 and 3.2. Contribution made for answering the research question.
Olivier: Constructed and written code of “percentage differences over time…” graphs for subquestions 1,2 and 3. Written Chapter two inbound and outbound throughgoing transport. Contribution made for answering the research question.
Jasper: Constructed and written code of “Fuel prices vs transport” graphs for subquestions 1, 2 and 3. Written Chapter two inbound and outbound throughgoing transport. Contribution made for answering the research question.